Regarding all of the current "Kneale is an idiot" blogger outcries, let me say this:
CNBC's Kneale is an exceptionally bright, well educated guy whose credentials are without question. I know this because I grew up with him, went to high school with him, and went to college with him, where we shared a healthy rivalry chasing each others girlfriends.
I suspect there is a method to his madness and his seemingly inane optimism in a miserable economic environment, a reason for his confrontational, no holds barred manner. It’s his job to agitate, to spur intense discussion and fire up viewers. And he's damn good at it. If he didn't take a contrary position from the majority, we'd all be watching the "Boring Lunch", rather than the Power Lunch.
But, being "Jack Mounteer the Commercial Banker", not "Dennis's Buddy, Jack", I have to chime in on the dissent regarding a couple of his recently published economic opinions. Dennis, you're my old friend, so I have to tell it to you straight. I read some of your stuff and watched some of the yackety-yack on CNBC. You, my favorite national TV personality, are either smoking a giant bong filled with hashish, or indulging yourself by taking a contrary "Things Aren't That Bad" position for the sake of firing us all up.
Take it from a guy who is in the trenches everyday meeting with small and medium-sized business owners and borrowers. Things suck bad. I mean, really really suck large. A sucking so enormous as to create a huge vacuum of space devoid of any upside for the foreseeable future. Revenues are way down for almost every business owner I know. Some by 60%. Many are hanging on by a thread, slashing overhead to the bone, and praying for the consumer to emerge from his funk.
Here is the problem. The consumer cannot emerge from his funk. His lack of spending is not by choice. The banks can no longer make home equity loans, because people are now poor. Most people's biggest asset (their house) is now worth less than the total balance of their mortgage loan and home equity loan. Their net worth has plummeted, and now may even be negative, because the value of their largest asset has plummeted.
And so, people are tapped out. The spending orgy of the last 5 or 6 years, fueled almost entirely by cash obtained by leveraging their wildly appreciating home, is over. PERMANENTLY OVER. There is nowhere for them to go for money. They must now live within the limits of their disposable income. What a bummer. And the loan defaults will grow in number as values continue to fall, regardless if the current spurt in the numbers is due primarily to increased delays (days late) in payments on loans already in default.
And so, the market is not fundamentally too low due to investor fear as you claim. The market is low because investors know what is coming. The low P/E ratios and exceptional dividend ratios of today are based on historical earnings. Earnings that will not be realized again anytime soon because: 1) consumer spending has fallen, is falling, and will continue to remain flat or fall. 2) Companies can no longer enhance profitability by means of inexpensive leverage and low costs of capital. Profits are down, permanently down, and falling further.
It does not take a Nobel winning economist to see this. It is pretty simple, really.
And investors are fleeing from financials and bank stocks for good reason. I compete with these failing banks every day. I see how they are behaving on the front lines. They are in serious trouble. They have insufficient capital. They cannot make loans because of it. They are hoarding cash to cover future liabilities.
As these financial institutions come back again and again to the well, and the U.S. Government comes to own a larger and larger chunk of these institutions, the common stock owners will be left in the cold. No smart investor wants to take on that risk. That is why their stock values have plummeted. There is no recovery for them in sight.
So, Dennis, I really don't think you believe all of your own banter. Instead, I see your true intent, and commend you on your very successful strategy of becoming a household name, of stirring the pot. Without your lively controversial approach, we'd all be yawning, or worse, just crying. I am speculating there is a method to your madness. As my Daddy said to me when I was a young man, "Son, it doesn't matter whether they are talkin' good or bad about you, as long as they are talkin' about you".
